Declining birth rate, both in US and globally, mirrors concerns over resources, sustainability
It’s no secret that the familiar recipe for the American Dream—a house, a dignifying job, 2.5 children—is changing. The age of first-time homebuyers continues to rise, and the high cost of living has all too often turned work into a fruitless hamster wheel, and the adoption of AI threatens many entry-level positions. The 2.5 children once at the center of the idealized nuclear family have also changed—specifically, they’ve shrunk. After decades of more or less consistent decline, the US period total fertility rate hit a low of 1.62 children per woman of childbearing age in 2023, down from 3.65 in 1960. Notably, this is well below the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain the current population level.
Global fertility rates are on a similar trend, having fallen from five children per woman in 1950 to 2.3 today, and they are projected to reach 2.1 by 2050. No region is immune from this trend: Africa is the only continent where birthrates are still above replacement level, according to Pew Research Center, but even there they have fallen from more than 6.5 children per woman in 1950 to 4.0 in 2025.
Changes in fertility rates have been the source of anxiety and debate across the world, and students at West weighed in on this issue in a survey conducted in January. Of 297 respondents, 53.7% said they thought birth rates in the US should be the same as now, with 24.9 and 21.4% saying they should be higher and lower, respectively.
Sophomore Sophie Fletcher believes that birth rates in the US are on a healthy trend, and suggests that it would be more sustainable if rates also declined in other nations.
“In general, I'd say that the global birth rate should be lower because if we continue to have large numbers of children, the population will only continue to grow at a disturbingly exponential rate,” she said. “We as humans are also so self-destructive and harmful to the environment, having lots of children really isn't the smartest choice, in my opinion.”
Other students believe that fertility rates should not be the concern of society, suggesting that the consequences of a falling population will not materialize until after their lifetime or asserting that this area of individuals’ lives should not meet cultural or political interference.
“I think birthrates are how they should be; people deserve to have the right to choose, especially when it comes to having a child,” an anonymous student wrote.
Such positions reflect the sentiment of the wider population. Although many world leaders and members of the general populace are concerned about the potential consequences of dropping fertility, an AP-NORC poll last June found that only 12% of American adults believe encouraging people to have children should be a high government priority.
Many societal forces that have contributed to declining birth rates are signs of development and improving quality of life. Reducing the gender gap in the workplace, increasing access to family planning, reducing infant mortality, and increasing access to education—particularly among women—are all cited as primary reasons people are choosing to have fewer children.
Some students responding to the January survey felt that birth rates should continue to decline to ensure the prosperity of future generations. Although most countries’ populations are reproducing below replacement level, the UN projects global population will peak around 10.3 billion, and many respondents worried about the environmental strain that could result from such a rise.
“I’m concerned that if they go up again, the world will continue to be overpopulated. There’s not enough resources as it is and waste production will lower if there’s less people,” wrote one anonymous student.
Junior Chloe Mellgren suggested that falling birth rates could also help the US resolve social and economic issues.
“I think we are having too many kids as less and less people are able to support themselves or an addition,” she wrote in the survey. “Everyone is scared of the lower rates, but it just means that there are less mouths that need to be fed, and less kids who would have to grow up in fear due to the current conditions.”
At the same time, other students worried that contractions in America’s population will be mirrored in the economy, burdening the current and future generations and draining the social safety net. Senior Rowan Stellpflug was among those with these concerns.
“If birth rates go down, then there aren’t people to fill spots in jobs, and the elderly to non-elderly ratio is way off, causing big problems in the economy with social security and more,” she wrote.
Immigration has historically fueled population growth and evaded economic downturn in the US even as birth rates sit below replacement levels. However, in 2025, the second Trump administration’s aggressive deportation and border security tactics led to the first net loss of immigrants in more than five decades, according to the Brookings Institution, which raises questions about the continued reliability of this source of population growth.
In the January survey, some students attributed their lack of concern about the United States’ falling birth rate to this strong record of immigration. However, others suggested that keeping immigration rates low was a major reason people in the US should have more children. While he sees immigration as essential for the economy and part of American identity, senior Carter Crowe worries that cultural shifts caused by declining birth rates could create social instability or the loss of the diverse global heritages that constitute American identity.
“If we continue with the trend of low birth rates our culture will be wiped from the world and America will no longer be the United States,” he wrote in the survey.
Multiple survey respondents raised concerns about what a shrinking population could mean for the education system and teachers’ job stability. In the Oshkosh Area School District, declining enrollment caused in part by falling birth rates has contributed to a $5.5 million operational deficit, the reparation of which will require staff lay-offs, program cuts, and stricter compliance with the 27-student-minimum to run courses, among other adjustments. Individuals from across the community, including many students at West, raised concerns about such changes during the December Board of Education meeting, when an initial budget reconciliation plan was under consideration.
Paradoxically, at the same time, a falling birthrate may mean fewer educational opportunities or a more stressful school environment. Many survey respondents said an improved education system would be an impetus to have children. Senior Summer Zinsli is among many concerned with the safety and educational priorities of schools.
“If I were to bring children into this world, I would want to see an education system that prioritizes holistic development over standardized testing,” she said. “I would want to see smaller class sizes where teachers aren't burnt out, ensuring my child receives attention and emotional support.”
by Aria Boehler
Published February 9, 2026
Oshkosh West Index Volume 122 Issue IV